Commenting on the impact of the Trump election on Korean trade for the past weeks—Korea-facing trade an area of my expertise– I have been hesitant as a Westerner to offer my views on the indictments against South Korean President Park.
Nevertheless, impeachment seems a growing likelihood. Politicos now predict the National Assembly will secure the required two-thirds majority vote needed to pass an impeachment bill. To this point, I feel the compelled to share what “next steps” we may see unfold. Pouring over scholarly updates including my longtime friend Professor Steph Haggard’s insightful “ Park Unraveling” series https://piie.com/blogs/north-korea-witness-transformation, I present a number of “If’s,” in short of President Park stepping down and resigning.
The “If’s.”
1. If the National Assembly moves forward and passes an impeachment bill, the Constitutional Court is then responsible for deliberating the case. In addition, President Park’s powers would be suspended with the Prime Minister charged to lead the nation during the interim.
2. The Court then has 180 days to make a ruling on whether charges against the president warrant impeachment. If the Constitutional Court upholds the impeachment bill, the South Korean Constitution stipulates a presidential election must be held within 60 days. That means if the Court takes the full six months to rule on the case, the election would be held in August 2017.
3. If the Court rules in favor of impeachment, President Park would be stripped of her post and could face criminal and civil charges. Under Korean law, presidents while in office are immune from prosecution short of treason or insurrection.
4. It is worth noting, the next South Korean presidential election is scheduled for December 20, 2017. In the event, the Court rules in favor of President Park, incumbent Korean presidents are limited to a single 5-year term in office, and President Park could not seek re-election.
5. With no clear favorite yet for 2017 presidential election along with if President Park is impeached triggering an earlier election, pundits do feel the current United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, a former Korean Prime Minister, positioned well as the front-runner amid a field of opposition party hopefuls.
All noted, with the situation subject to change and fluid, we’ll have to take a wait and see approach to what unfolds next.
Comments and questions welcome.
Everything Korea, December 5 Episode: ‘tis the Season, the EOY Shuffle
Year-end Promotions, Re-structuring, and New Assignments: Korea’s Corporate Culture 2016
Year-end organization wide promotions, re-structuring, and new assignments for teams are part of Korean corporate culture. Top to bottom within Korean companies they occurs sometime between early December and early January, with the changes to senior leadership happening first, and team level changes as a norm made known the week just before or between Christmas and New Year’s Day.
After the Holidays, teams then report back to work. Some assume new roles frequently in departments they have little experience–requiring employees to acquire new skills–sink or swim. Meanwhile others are en-route to assignments in overseas operations; a challenge for those working outside Korea for the first time. In the days that follow those shuffled brief their replacements, as staff remaining in their jobs update new management teams on the status of projects and issues.
Some years we do see less re-organization of the teams, departments, and division—some years more. The later can be driven by leadership looking to “shake up” the organization to spur growth. All said, change is commonplace and an accepted side of Korean business.
This year’s concerns in the Korean economy had prompted the major Korean groups to initiate a November early start to the year-end re-structuring…. But no sooner than announced, the Korean Presidential scandals has required the Groups to re-consider, pushing off the early annual move. This said, LG, CJ and Kolon have finally started their annual shifting of staff…… Media reports Samsung and SK to do so very soon, too… with the Hyundai Motor Group planning to announce promotions of executives at the end of the month.
So what to look for later this month.
The top Chaebol will post their promotions and provide some insight on trends. For example, we’ll see public announcements in the Korean language business media on a total number of the leading chaebol executives promoted–those advancing from General Manager (bujang) to Director (e-sa), and above. The Chaebol usually also comment on whether this year’s promotion number is more or less than in the past and “why.”
More recently the number of female employees who are made executives with a Group has been highlighted, a gradual move upward by women in the ranks. This is in contrast to a time when they were considered temporary staff and not long-term staff on track to be considered for management.
Finally, for teams below Director, time in rank promotions follow a model of 3-4 years for each of the first tiers up to Manager. For each upper managerial level—Deputy General Manager and General Manager– 5 years in a common tenure between each grade level.
For global teams, I suggest you congratulate those promoted, but also be sensitive to team members who were passed over… time in grade just one criteria for promotion.
Questions? Comments? Just ask